A new analysis released today at the World Economic Forum in Davos by IHS Markit Global growth is expected to increase from 2.5 percent in 2016 to 2.8 percent in 2017 and 3.1 percent in 2018.
“In 2017, the global economy will see a rebound in growth for first time since 2014,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist, IHS Markit. “The expectation that the incoming Trump administration will enact sizeable fiscal stimulus has increased optimism about the U.S. and the global economies. U.S. stock indexes are at record highs and interest rates and the dollar are rising. Data such as IHS Markit’s PMI surveys are already pointing to 2017 starting on a solid footing, with growth at the end of 2016 having gained momentum.”
Sempre secondo Markit, i paesi emergenti giocheranno un ruolo importante nella crescita economica mondiale“Emerging markets have really struggled in the past few years,” Behravesh said. “But, a growing global economy will mean that emerging markets can finally take a breath.” Economic fundamentals in most emerging markets have improved in the past couple of years and, with the exception of China, overall debt ratios are mostly down. Commodity prices are rising and both consumer and business sentiment have improved. This means that these economies will be able to enjoy the fruits of a more upbeat global outlook.
TUTTAVIA MARKIT SOLLEVA IL RISCHIO DI UNA GUERRA COMMERCIALE E UN PROCESSO ANTIGLOBALIZZAZIONE CHE PUO' PORTARE A RISULTATI NEFASTI PER L'ECONOMIA MONDIALE
“Unfortunately, political and policy uncertainties as well as risks are higher now than they were a year ago,” Behravesh said at the World Economic Forum. “The rise of anti-globalization movements in the U.S. and Europe could result in policies that hurt growth. In particular, a trade war could push the U.S. and global economies into recession.”
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